Abstract
Donald Trump's trade policies during his presidency were characterized by protectionist measures, including tariff increases and trade disputes with major economies. Following his re-election, similar policies could resurface, impacting global trade dynamics. This paper aims to analyze the potential economic consequences of Trump's second leadership on OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) economies, focusing on three key policies: (1) a tariff on steel and aluminum, (2) a trade war with China, and (3) geopolitical tensions with BRICS nations. The GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model is employed to simulate the short-run effects of these policies on GDP, trade balance, and welfare in OIC countries. The results suggest that increased tariffs and trade conflicts may lead to shifts in global trade patterns, with potential negative spillover effects on OIC economies, particularly those with strong trade ties to the US, China, and BRICS. Trade diversion effects are also observed, indicating possible shifts in export flows. The findings provide insights into how OIC nations might navigate the uncertainties of a renewed Trump administration's economic policies. Keywords: Donald Trump, OIC economies, Tariff, GTAP.Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
MBER have CC-BY-SA or an equivalent license as the optimal license for the publication, distribution, use, and reuse of scholarly work.
In developing strategy and setting priorities, MBER recognize that free access is better than priced access, libre access is better than free access, and libre under CC-BY-SA or the equivalent is better than libre under more restrictive open licenses. We should achieve what we can when we can. We should not delay achieving free in order to achieve libre, and we should not stop with free when we can achieve libre.
MBER is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
You are free to:
- Share copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.